A Happy Coincidence

anon (92.83.244.133): 18th Jun 2009 - 19:34 GMT

It depends how much time the bird flies in front of camera. Let's suppose she stayed one second in fron of camera. If that so, you have 1 to 60 chances.

Smartass: 18th Jun 2009 - 19:41 GMT

@anon

Well, well, aren't you the little genius?

anon (dyn-62-56-114-46.dslaccess.co.uk): 18th Jun 2009 - 19:44 GMT

i agree with smartass...
who cares?!
its a good picture :D

sodalis: 18th Jun 2009 - 19:57 GMT

I'd say taking into account the speed of the bird, the rate the aperture activates, wind speed, time of day, and Photoshop, the odds are surprisingly low.

tamas: 18th Jun 2009 - 19:59 GMT

you`d have a 1 to 60 chance in case a bird would fly by the camera 1sec of every minute :P

Plastik.hu: 18th Jun 2009 - 20:19 GMT

Assuming he stayed there an entire second. Anyway, thanks to all the mathematicians! Hope you enjoyed the photo :-)

Peter: 18th Jun 2009 - 20:23 GMT

wow, astonishing photo! awesome.

also astonishing:

This article has been viewed 9097 times in the last 108 minutes

yay stumbleupon!

me: 18th Jun 2009 - 22:38 GMT

i've seen a bird get fixated on its reflection in a window, and spend a LOT of time inspecting it over the course of the day. in any case, a sorta cool photo.

Rupert Murdock: 18th Jun 2009 - 22:49 GMT

Technical bollox aside: I'm down MC Big Bird

n00b: 18th Jun 2009 - 22:58 GMT

OMG A GIANT BIRD ATTACKING HUNGARY!!! ALERT THE AUTHORITIES!

Inez: 18th Jun 2009 - 23:03 GMT

Sure, birds inspect themselves in the window, OK. But how do they do this unless they're hummingbirds and can hover? Our feathered friend here isn't standing on anything :-0

Anybody know what kind of bird she is?

Peter: 18th Jun 2009 - 23:06 GMT

looks like a black-capped chickadee to me...

MrM: 18th Jun 2009 - 23:12 GMT

I think the chances are remote. If there was a 1 in 60 chance that you'd capture a bird in plain flight in front of a camera that only takes one picture every minute, you'd probably end up with a lot more pictures like that over a period of time. In fact you'd probably have a picture of the bird every 2 1/2 to 3 days or so. Clearly not the case here.

steve: 18th Jun 2009 - 23:32 GMT

are you sure it's not a giant bird trying to steal cars - what are the odds then ??

Graham: 18th Jun 2009 - 23:40 GMT

The bird in the picture is a male Great Tit, a common bird seen throughout Europe. Great shot. I wouldn't be surprised however if the camera was full of shots (not necessarily as good as this one mind) of the same bird, as the species is highly inquisitive and would spend quite a bit of time investigating something as interesting as a camera, especially given that the lens of the camera would be reflective.

uhh what?: 19th Jun 2009 - 00:15 GMT

It'd only be a 1 in 60 chance if a bird was in front of the camera for 1 second EVERY minute. If the bird flew by there once a day (which is still highly unlikely), the chances would be much more slim.

Rosie: 19th Jun 2009 - 01:14 GMT

lol, i knida doubt this person actually wanted the chances.

Peter: 19th Jun 2009 - 01:15 GMT

maybe the bird is really a hologram and not even actually there at all :-0

Roxanne: 19th Jun 2009 - 01:26 GMT

I cant believe there are some people actually saying what the chances are. I think the question was rhetorical. But it is a cool picture :)

Somebody: 19th Jun 2009 - 01:29 GMT

1 in 86400 per day if the bird flies in front of the camera in one second.
Each day the camera is on increases the chances
1 in 43200 if it comes by once a day over 2 days
If the camera runs for a years the chances are roughly 1 in 242
If the bird flies and stays in front of the camera curiously for a minute it's 1 in 1440 per day
1 in 4 over a year assuming the minute is each time is slightly less than the minute between shots.
If it was curious enough to buz up and inspect the camera for any length of time, the odds are pretty good, not only for this shot, but I would guess several shots will be made as time goes on. You might get a bee or a fly too! :-)

EvilGentleman: 19th Jun 2009 - 05:15 GMT

Actually, if the bird stays in front of the camera for 1 second, the chances are 1 in 60 that A picture of the bird will be taken.

The actual chances of an individual person seeing that image depends on how many times they navigate to that page on that day. But each day has 1440 minutes, so divide that by the number of webcam frames they are likely to view in a day, then multiply by 60.

The chances of ANY person seeing that image depend on the traffic that the webcam usually has at any given time.

All in all, I would guess the true odds of this sort of thing being found on the web to be 1 in 100, or 1%.

But all this is assuming that a bird will pause in front of the webcam for 1 second today. It does not take into account the frequency with which curious birds pause in front of the webcam, which I would guess is quite seldom.

Unless of course, its nest is on top of the webcam. Then all bets are off.

A different Anon: 19th Jun 2009 - 23:32 GMT

Or, if the bird hung out in the window for a whole minute, there's a 100% chance that a picture would be taken of it.

TwistedSofia.com: 22nd Jun 2009 - 16:24 GMT

That giant bird is trying to grab the white car!!

samdot: 25th Jun 2009 - 00:28 GMT

that bird is just a narcissist. i assume it had been flying in front of that camera for days waiting for a flash. i don't blame it. thats one good lookin bird.

dglenn: 25th Jun 2009 - 19:50 GMT

What are the chances of everybody shutting-up about what the chances are?

zagg: 29th Jun 2009 - 23:27 GMT

I was hoping for better chances to see some tits...

boo: 1st Jul 2009 - 21:54 GMT

For a single web cam, the chances of getting an image like this is very small. But the chances are actually very good that some web cam somewhere catches an image like this pretty often, considering how many web cams there are these days. I am the great eye of the internet and I sees all, and no bird of nature can defeat me, no matter how giant!

Ruth: 2nd Jul 2009 - 08:51 GMT

Nice photography, If i wil get chance to click good birds, then i'll send some photos.

anyways nice image.

smartass2: 2nd Jul 2009 - 14:54 GMT

it's 1 in 2 change. it's either in front of the cam or not.

Lrz: 2nd Jul 2009 - 15:06 GMT

I agree with anon. If you ask a question, you should be glad to get an answer. If the question was rhetorical, well then your rhetorics suck. ;)

Nice pic, btw.

SadPanda: 2nd Jul 2009 - 15:28 GMT

not fair! I googled "tits" and "camera" and end up here. You f*cking bastards!

Big Balls: 2nd Jul 2009 - 15:48 GMT

OHMG FGS Rhetorics date back to the mayan empire, while statistics were only even mentionable back in the Chinese revolution of Ming's Dynasty. Rhetorics came first, then statistics so why dont LRZ and whoever talks about the statistics go shove a baton up your ass because this is a cool picture and im high on mescaline.

Tavro: 2nd Jul 2009 - 16:17 GMT

You have a 1 in 60 chance that it gets its picture taken when it flys in front of it, but the other Einsteins here aren't calculating in the odds of a bird flying directly in front of the camera at all.

I cannot believe I said that: 2nd Jul 2009 - 16:28 GMT

... the chances may drop slightly at night...

anon: 2nd Jul 2009 - 16:44 GMT

You forgot to ask one crucial question. What is the average airspeed velocity of an unladen chickadee?

woody: 2nd Jul 2009 - 16:46 GMT

Love the pic just take pleasure of a cool shot . Learn to relax

anon (natpool4.csumb.edu): 2nd Jul 2009 - 17:00 GMT

squares.
Stop being so technical and just enjoy the picture.

John: 2nd Jul 2009 - 17:43 GMT

With the number of webcams in the world, the chances are guaranteed.

not a math wiz: 2nd Jul 2009 - 17:46 GMT

there is no real way to get a accurate 1 in whatever number because you are missing a few critical elements. How often the bird flys by, how often its right in front of the lens, and then you have the fact that it's never going to be anything other than random. So technically there is no way to come up with an answer. So please stop bickering over such an awesome picture and just realize the LUCK of the draw.

Nate: 2nd Jul 2009 - 17:47 GMT

Is it just me or does this remind you guys of Pokemon Snap

I kinda Prof. Oak to come in Critique the shot :)

anon (68.178.68.140): 2nd Jul 2009 - 17:56 GMT

Also consider the number of cameras and birds. More of either significantly increases the odds of this pic.

Peter: 2nd Jul 2009 - 18:30 GMT

thats right, ladies and gentlemen... someone has compared the statistical over-analysis of this photo to pokemon... please fasten your seatbelts as we accelerate towards singularity...

foyertopp: 2nd Jul 2009 - 18:37 GMT

Peter; to be really pedantic about it: tits and chickadees are NOT the same thing. They are "cousins", you might say; they are both members of the prividae family, and are almost always seen together at feeders, birdbaths, etc., but they are two distinct species, not hatching mutual offspring.

foyertopp: 2nd Jul 2009 - 18:39 GMT

Unless of course, we're talking about different nomenclature in the UK vis-a-vis teh the US.

foyertopp: 2nd Jul 2009 - 18:47 GMT

As a long-time backyard bird feeder in Texas, and amateur bird photographer, I gotta say that is one extra sweet webcam capture. What a fine-looking shot of a damn cute little bird. Getting the highlights in the eyes of the bird-subject is always a challenge for the lens, so this is an especially fortuitous frame. I really appreciate Stumbling Upon it!

Hypno Victim: 3rd Jul 2009 - 00:14 GMT

Its the Giant European Hypno-bird. If you stare in its eyes for too long you end up worshipping it, and this particular individual (Karvalla the Great) is actually the Mayor of Szenngottard and a member of the European Parliament. In giant hypno-birds we trust. Soon you puny Americans will bend your knees to worship your new master...Karvalla the Great! Now go back and look deeply in his eyes and relax...

alienbob21: 3rd Jul 2009 - 00:29 GMT

Actually the chances are less then 1 in 60. If the camera shoots one frame every minute and a bird flies by for one second every minute of every day then the odds are most definitely 1 in 60.

But the idea of a bird flying by once randomly every minute of every day is a ridiculous idea. So I would say a shot like that is by far more rare than 1 in 60.

If it were 1 in 60 then you are saying a bird is flying by in one minute intervals and the camera is shooting frames at one minute intervals. So if its 1 in 60 you would recording one bird for every 60 frames shot. so you would be literally recording one bird an hour for 24 hours and would have 24 birds a day. And this is definitely not happening. Rethink the 1 in 60. Because that is definitely not the odds.

Now if a bird flies by once a day, every day which is far more plausable than once a minute every day. Then the odds of getting this shot for a camera recording a frame ever 60 seconds whould be.
1 in (60 * 60 * 24) because you are recording 1 frame every 60 seconds and you are doing so for 24 hours. there are 60 minutes in an hour and 60 seconds in a minute. we do not know at what second the camera is snapping so we have to compensate for all seconds and all minutes of every day. so for a shot like this to happen in one day the odds are. 1 in 86400. That's the chances of a bird flying by that camera at the exact same time the camera is recording that frame during that minute of that day. This would mean that there would be one bird recorded a day which is not the case either. So the odds are far less than that. If this shot is so common to happen once a year then the odds are

1 in 31,536,000(60seconds * 60 minutes * 24 hours * 365 days) and of course that is one bird recorded once a year. So yeah 1 in 60 is wrong.

Peter Griffin : 5th Jul 2009 - 08:21 GMT

Well everybody knows, the bird is the word.
Bird, bird, bird is the word!

ari: 8th Jul 2009 - 06:11 GMT

Everyone is enjoying the picture in their own way. If they wanna be technical, then fine, quite giving them a hard time about it. I won't be giving any numbers, but thanks to all u who have. Nice picture, its really neat.

Juanny - 26 July, 09: 26th Jul 2009 - 22:24 GMT

I hardly think anyone was interested in the mathimatical deductions, however, the chances of getting this kind of shot from a traffic cam is slim and perhaps even slimmer with any other camera situation. Not very likely that a bird would provide such a neat pose...nice shot.

joey: 29th Jul 2009 - 16:18 GMT

well, he could have seven stayed there longer then a second, black capped chickadees are known for doing odd things a regular bird would not do, like hanging upside down.

Slim: 1st Aug 2009 - 17:03 GMT

The chances are even smaller than 1 in 31,536,000 actualy. Seeing as this is the rare Giant Tit, the only one known to man as of now, yo have to compaound the 31,536,000 by the ratio of Giant Tits to the smaller sized tit.

A gambling man: 15th Aug 2009 - 15:41 GMT

I would lay $20 dollars on getting the same shot from another webcam within one month

Franny Wentzel: 1st Sep 2009 - 07:46 GMT

Pretty neat that the camera got the bird's wings on the downstroke...

P: 1st Sep 2009 - 21:49 GMT

of course it's a Parus Major, Swe: Talgoxe , Eng: Great Tit. it is all over Europe, not rare at all. Great Pic from a 1 min "webbcam".

Meister: 2nd Sep 2009 - 14:39 GMT

Looks more like a "blue tit" than a Great tit. But still taking all the variables in consideration this is a very unlikely picture to happen so *thumbs up* :)!

plunker: 3rd Sep 2009 - 00:15 GMT

can that bird hover anyway? cool shot regardless

Julian: 13th Sep 2009 - 22:26 GMT

I live in Manchester and have just lost my car - do you think this explains it?

Graz: 12th Oct 2009 - 22:01 GMT

What an ODD photo. Glad I got the CHANCE to see it.

Hehe...cool capture.

Dave: 10th Nov 2009 - 05:17 GMT

There's a few things to consider here.

A. proportion of time birds are in front of the camera looking into it. Probably hard to determine and probably pretty rare. Let's say .00005% as a generous guess.

B. proportion of time imaged by the camera. .00028% per hour if the "shutter" speed is 1/60th of a second.

Multiply A times B and you have the probability of this shot.

0.0000000139% or about 1 in 72 million... roughly.

However, any event with a probability greater than zero can, will and does occur, eventually.

Whatever the probability, it's a great image.

dougrosbury@comcast.net: 11th Nov 2009 - 12:19 GMT

Faith can replace all that analysis. Be glad. Enjoy. Let it strengthen your faith which will serve you in other ways also.---Doug

hiho65: 12th Nov 2009 - 14:32 GMT

wonderfull thats what i call youve bin framed lol

shinny: 12th Nov 2009 - 15:41 GMT

the bird practically composed itself in the picture! amazing i love it :)

anona: 19th Nov 2009 - 19:45 GMT

who the hell cares what the odds are you a-holes, its a beautiful shot, and it's rare whether its one in a million or one in sixty.